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With the drop in the number of covid cases in India a bringing some relief, it seems that India has more days of test ahead. AIIMS Chief (All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi) Dr. Randeep Gularia said at a press conference on 20th June 2021 that the third wave of covid pandemic is inevitable and is likely to hit India anytime between 6-8 weeks. This translates to beginning of August 2021.
The Early Warning
The delta variant in the 2nd wave which proved catastrophic for the country, the 3rd wave is being predicted to have stronger effects. The 3rd wave was predicted to hit India by September end or early October. However, Dr. Randeep Gularia, the Director of AIIMS and a pulmonologist, said in an interview with NDTV, “The 3rd wave is based on the human behaviour. As we have started unlocking, there is again a lack of COVID-appropriate behaviour. We don’t seem to have learnt from what happened between the first and the second wave. Again, crowds are building up, people are gathering. It will take some time for the number of cases to start rising at the national level.”
Dr Randeep Gularia’s interview to NDTV on the 3rd wave
Dr Randeep Gularia has pointed out that the government needs to have a robust strategy to speed-up the vaccination program in the country. Crowd building needs to be avoided and people need to be more sensitive and mature. World Health Organization (WHO) said in January 2021 that the Indian government has rolled out the world’s largest vaccination drive to vaccinate around 300 million people against COVID-19.
The prediction by IIT Kanpur team
A team from IIT-K (Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur) which has been studying the covid data on a daily basis said that the number of cases will peak between September and October this year, assuming that India fully unlocks by 15th July, according to a prediction model by the team. The team is being led by professors Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma. A detailed copy of the research can se referred here.
The team also predicts in a worst-case scenario the number of cases rising up to 5 lakh in a day in September. There are 3 scenarios being considered by the team.
In the first scenario, where restrictions are completely lifted by 15th July, the team predicts that the third wave will peak in October. However, this peak height will be lower than that of the second wave. At the peak, a maximum of 3.2 lakh cases will be recorded daily.
In the second scenario, the researchers assume the emergence of new, more infectious variants of SARS-CoV-2. If there are no lockdowns or restrictions, the peak could be higher than the second one and may appear earlier, in September. This is the worst-case scenario where the number of new infections daily could reach as high as 5 lakh a day.
The researchers predict a third scenario where the peak of the third wave could be delayed until late October. The model suggests if stricter interventions to prevent the spread of the disease are implemented, the peak of the third wave will be lower than the second wave, with less than 2 lakh cases reported in the worst case.
All three scenarios, however, predict a peak bigger than the first wave.
An important comment by the research team on the data said “Vaccination is known to break the transmission chain. At present, the model does not include vaccination, which should decrease the peak significantly. Revised model with vaccination and with more recent data on the same is being worked out”.
The IIT Kanpur team has been providing daily Covid-19 forecasts in India.
The flight ban for international flights were banned from 23rd March 2020 till 30th June 2021. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) reviews the situation in the country and extends the ban depending on the situation in the country. It is most likely that the International flight ban will get extended further till the situation in the country settles down. This has left many travelers to India stranded, a big percentage belonging to Medical tourist who travel to India for their life saving treatment.
More than 495,056 medical travels travel to India each year for their treatment. They are commonly referred as Medical tourists.
India had a very tough 4 weeks when the number of covid cases had hit all time high. Many hospitals had raised red flags with their units running critically low on oxygen. The cremation grounds were running over capacity and people were seen waiting for a very long time before they could burn their loved ones. Similar cases were seen at graveyards where the number of burial cases were at an all-time high. It is extremely important for the necessary preparations to be in place by the government in order to minimize the 3rd wave’s effect.
Dr Harsh Vardhan Puri, Senior Consultant Thoracic Surgeon, Institute of Chest Surgery, Medanta Hospital, said that while the third wave was imminent, the intensity of that wave would depend on two key factors.
“A third wave will definitely come, whether it will be as dreadful as the second wave or milder will depend on two factors.”
The first factor, the doctor said, was whether the people of India make it a point to follow Covid appropriate behaviour for the rest of 2021. “If people are out on the streets partying, then the results will be bad” he said.
The second factor listed by the doctor is if India is able to vaccinate 60% to 70% of its population in the next 6 months. He went on to add that to do this India needs to ramp up the vaccination drive and also bring in more vaccines into the country.
“If we are able to live up to these two factors, we are likely to have a milder third wave, if not, the wave could be as devastating as the second one, or even worse” the doctor said.
Things To Do to Prepare for the 3rd Wave
- Covid-19 is still here and far from over. Do not be lenient
- Mask up and sanitize. Go out only when necessary
- If you are reporting any symptoms like fever, headache, isolate yourself and immediately seek medical attention
